Home Election 2020 US Election 2020 Updates (Part-3): The Forecast Model and the Right Presidential Candidate

US Election 2020 Updates (Part-3): The Forecast Model and the Right Presidential Candidate

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November is nearing to us. So we have brought the US election 2020 updates for you. Let’s start reading.

Introduction

The presidential race of 2020 poses extraordinary obstacles to forecasters. In the backdrop of one of the most significant challenges the United States has faced in the last one hundred years – the coronavirus pandemic – the election occurs. Formally wrapping up the convention period, the poll’s results have not been affected to a great extent compared to prior years, where there is normally a post-convention bounce in popularity. Biden is still taking the lead for being the president.

Also, you can read the previous series,

  1. US Election 2020 Updates (Part-1): List of Probable Incidents as the Election is Nearing
  2. US Election 2020 Updates (Part-2): Is Trump Feeling Incompetent after Seeing Biden’s Rising Popularity?

The opinions of the forecast models

Dig through the back alleys of Twitter or any Nate Silver tweet, and you’ll find people asking for a peek at his presidential electoral models. As the model of election 2020 is now released, which simulates the results of the election one hundred times, Joe Biden is predicted to win 67 times out of the one hundred simulations as of September 1, 2020. This year, the methodology of presenting the US presidential forecast model has changed a lot compared to the last election due to the pandemic.   

Opinions forecast models includes Voting During Pandemic

The reality is clear that we have a growing pandemic, racial equality demonstrations, and major economic upheavals leading to the elections, but the environment of polling and data science is under close scrutiny after the previous election. This year as well, the FiveThirtyEight model contradicts some sections of the field of political research. Biden has a significantly higher chance of gaining the presidency, according to The Economist. The number is as high as 87 percent probability.

According to Silver, the statistician, his election forecast model looks a lot like The Economist’s prediction. Both are predicting Joe Biden winning the presidency. However, FiveThirtyEight seems to consider that there are still two months left until Election Day arrives. For months it has been very clear in the polling results that Biden is undoubtedly taking the lead.

The Democratic party’s polling predictions have been the most stable. Even though Biden’s result collapsed for a while after his Iowa loss, his odds for winning rose up high again after his win in South Carolina. It will not be surprising if Joe Biden moves from 67 percent probability to a 90 percent probability of winning in the next two months per the progressing forecast model. In a fairly ordinary world, the election of 2016 was a chaotic race — polls sank and went down, people changed their opinions right until the last moment. In contrast to that, even though the world is in turmoil, the 2020 election is surprisingly steady.

Many modelers interpret this as a symbol of the race continuing in the same direction as it has been for the past months. In the FiveThirtyEight composite national polling, Biden leads President Trump. So yes, even if there is a chance of re-election for Donald Trump, the odds are highly in favor of Joe Biden.

Biden has the most inclusive party group, which has garnered by far the people’s highest support. He definitely leads in endorsements. All of the negative predictions against Biden have been proven to be wrong. He also has a relative benefit to his electoral success, and he is somebody in the polls who can defeat President Trump. For Biden, this really looks fantastic since Democrats are really keen to defeat Trump.

With the unfavorability of his rating, Trump’s support is weak. There is a 25-30% risk of recession forecasted by economists. There is a wider base for Democrats to win. Moreover, the impeachment may not function well in favor of Donald Trump.

Along with that, within the White House, it seems there are growing confusion and even  Republican outrage regarding Trump’s recent Syria and Turkey choices. Trump won narrowly last time and politicians who always struggle with re-election win by a slim margin. Along with that, Donald Trump made several questionable remarks in the past few months, including making false claims against Kamala Harris recently. These may seriously affect Trump’s chance of winning.

What does the historian’s model say?

In August, Allan Lichtman, an American University writer, and professor of history announced his predictions in favor of Biden. This prediction is very much valid as he correctly predicted the previous election results, including Trump’s win of 2016. Lichtman’s statistical approach – which positions him entirely among the minority of observers who called the victory for Trump – generally disregards comprehensive polling analysis and the counting of swing state votes, often a focus of modern political expertise.

Lichtman’s predictive algorithm looks at thirteen separate categories known as the “Keys to the White House,” more relevant to the history of the White House ruling party than the candidates themselves. The keys are addressed to the ruling party as true and false, positioned to encourage a win if correct. However, if six or more of the claims turn out false, the opposition wins; in this case, Biden is supposed to win the vote.

The right presidential candidate: Why Biden is more likely to win?

President Trump, Former President Obama and Former Vice President Joe Biden

According to historians who have been predicting the correct result, Biden is more likely to win. Here are some of the reasons Biden should win according to various political personnel. Biden has a very distinctive quality that Trump clearly doesn’t; that is decency. In Donald Trump’s time, honesty is what we need above all to preserve our democratic soul.

In comparison to Trump, Biden adds a collegial leadership style to the plate, which involves the readiness to negotiate, and serves the public good beyond his faction. He did just that to guide the United States through the economic downturn of 2008. It is gravitas what Biden seems to have that Trump lacks. He is serious about the position of a president.

This is why Trump may fail

You may assume the polling results will shrink as the vote draws nearer, which is a good bet. Or Donald Trump will start to behave like a standard leader, which is a poor bet. But it is informative to see why Biden has those large margins and how they compare with Trump’s increasingly bizarre actions.

Trump is estimated to have lost popularity among white women as a result of a number of initiatives. They include his handling of women and children at the borders and his divisive rhetoric, his lack of consideration for the welfare of returning school kids in the fall. In doing so, he has managed to upset a large side of the United States population.

On top of that, Donald Trump has lost many older voters. In 2016, the elderly (aged 65 and older) voted by nine points more for Trump. However, this year Quinnipiac reveals a fourteen-point gap with Trump with these voters now in Biden’s favor. Biden is certainly winning against Trump. It possibly was poor policy to attempt the abolition of Medicaid through repealing the Affordable Care Act. It is used to support nursing homes, and it caused the mass insecurity of elderly voters during the current disease outbreak.

This is extremely terrible news for Trump, since these voters usually turn out in larger numbers than the others, especially in countries with many elderly and on-going coronaviruses. So, in turn, Trump has lost quite a large number of supporters. This is exactly the reason why Trump is behind in popularity in Florida and Arizona.

Apart from these, Trump no longer has the support of white people who don’t have a college degree. Trump had immense support from this age group in 2016. However, many of these voters have been badly affected by the downturn; hence, they hate him for attempting to wipe out healthcare services or turn away due to Trump’s racial arguments.

Conclusion

The forecast model and statistics show that Joe Biden indeed will be the leader of the nation. He is virtuous, decent, and everything else Trump lacks, making him the most needed by the States. Most of the demographic turning their backs on Trump due to his immense favor to a predominantly male base, especially those who are far-right and evangelical. Having only two months left until the election arrives, we cannot wait to see if the predictions pay off!

To continue to read- US Election 2020 Updates (Part-4): Why Trump Says Ivanka is Better than Kamala Harris as VP

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